Samanth has left a new comment on your post "Number Meanings !!":
Ravi garu....emanukokapothe, can you put the following in a fresh post...I really want to take these Shikhars and ABCDs head on...
Nuvvu ela maatladutunnavante, large scale political corruption in AP started on May 14th 2004...
CM Ramesh, he is not even in direct politics...he is a hugely rich big shot today...
D Gowds election affidavit in 2004 showed a property of 100 crores (those days 1 crore still meant much)..and this is just official declaration....for a man who a few years back was a red brick contractor, this was quite impressive...
And last but not least, Babu garu, Heritage Empire, Properties in Singapore/Malaysia, Shamshabad/Hi Tech City.....
Unless these guys are closet Warren Buffet, where did all this money come from.....Stop your homilies....there are enough sites for you to spill venom on YSR....go there, you will be welcomed......
One more thing, Food for Work was meant for the needy and hungry....the program was looted like hell when thousands of agricultural labourers were starving.....NREGA was started with a similar intent...the difference is that in Andhra, it has been the most transaparent, leakage free implementation (I did not say this, NREGA Experts have written in The Hindu, I can share the link with you, but I dont think that will make any difference to your prejudice)
Go to YSC site...meeku ghana swaagatham labisthundi akkada...
May 12, 2009 Posted by Samanth to YSR and YS Jagan Yuvasena at May 12, 2009
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194 comms:
samanth brother,
well said and good reply for those idiots hypocrites.
what is the site again please
wel said brother....ee lafoot gaallaki skranga chadavanu kuda radanukunta.....orey sikandi na kondellara...corruption..corruption ani ginjukuntunnaru....sadavagaligithe go check the latest report of transperency international....AP is beeter than Gujarat in corruption management..or should I say gujarat is more corrupt.....go check it if you can read...coppy gotti mosam chesi sathikina saduvulayithe like TDP assholes...duppi bojanam cheyandi..yem bathukulra meevi..chussss.
today sakshi headlines
biggest conspiracy to topple YSR govt- by dramoji
http://sakshi.com/Main/SportsDetailsNormal.aspx?catid=233909&categoryid=1&subcatid=33
Brothers
12 hrs more to go...
For the Exit Polls...
First step towards our leader's success....
This day will be rocking for sure...
5 PM IST.....
andhrabhoomi kasta tone marindi after elections... 1 month before elections koncham bad ga rasadu but now he is saying only congress has hopes of forming on its own and tdp/prp lost hopes ani... may be he realised ground reality and siding towards congress again :))
http://andhrabhoomi.net/shead7.html
http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/13/stories/2009051356770600.htm
Heartwarming story.....this is an example of "good" governance...it is not about some fancy buildings in Gadchi Bowli (a lot of them may become empty anyway)...
fundamentally a central government scheme, adopted whole heartedly by the state government and executed to perfection....
If you go through the article, you will realise, agri failures attribution to drought is pure escapism...there are many many other factors....extension work, provision of seeds, fertilizer, credit....areas where "best administrator" Naidu was a miserable failure...incidentally even milk production in Anantapur has gone up significantly I heard....
I am confident we will win...my assessment..atleast 120+....but these are achievements that will stay, win or lose....
Guys don't lose heart now. Congress is getting 150+ and forming govt by its own. And our YSR will be CM for next 5 years. This is not me speaking. I talked to one astrologer in 2004 before elections. He said YSR will be CM for next 10 years.
I talked to a Chittoor Dt Congress secretary last weekend. He said 130 is sure shot and 30-40 are too close to call. Even if we get 10 out of those 30-40, congress is in.
Mark my words. I will come back on 16th and we can celebrate.
Just to detach myself from the title of this post:
Samanth - Can you show me one post of mine where I accused of YSR of corruption?.....I very well know that's something inevitable no matter who comes to power (magnitude of it may vary...)
I think you mentioned my name in general sense for non-YSR supporters....If thats the case, its ok, otherwise, please stand corrected
ABCD, if you did not say it, I stand corrected
This is fight between YS and Ramoji, no CBN,KCR..idee high level lo jaruguthundi..Ramoji plan enti ante, ikkada ela unna parledhu,centre lo UPA vaste.first move ayye file Margadarsi case di. Jan30th antha ready chesaru,even undavalli kuda chala confident tho cheppadu appudu,but high level lo adi tokkesaru,I mean kontha time tharuvatha chuddamani...
Now who ever forms the govt in Centre, the first major case will be Margadarsi issue,if NDA forms, manam case nu marchipovachhu..UPA vaste matramu Gunta Nakka jump..manam inkoka pedda gunta nakka ni marchpoyamu..Venkaiah Naidu, veedi kanna CBN chala better..margadarsi issue vachhinappudu, first meeting in political circle is Ramoji,CBN,Venkaiahnaidu and Balu(central minister)
oka manishi ni aapataniki intha mandi kalisi inni rakulu ga try cheyyatam ante, some how I am really proud as a YSR fan..
Takkari Donga first song vintu,16th varaku enjoy cheyyandi..NINDU CHANDRUDU OKA VYPU..CHUKKALU (KUKKALU) oka VYPU.....
just seeing sakshi tv... looks sakshi is very confident on YS coming back.. lite teesuko ani sattires vastuntayi kada.. after elections all sattires are on how maha kootami lo andaru ela odipotaru okarini okaru ela odinchukuntaru... nagadu badili ela avutundi mundu votlu badili kavali kada ani piccha picchaga sattires vestunnadu... this just shows confidence of a new channel who is trying to attain credibility in the public... otherwise why shud he have those sattires so frequently on how each of the MK parties are going to loose... so relieving to see the sattires though...
Sakshi brought a sea change in Telugu media,,otherwise we get headache of yellow media.
any one put the link here for sakshi tv,, as the regular one in not working well.
some how on counting day it may not work completely.
Can somebody post the links to election commission online updates with rounds wise votes etc
Dear friends,
Don't worry and bother about all the surveys now...just wait for 3 more days...we will win and at central level - congress forming govt is 75% chances with communists support right now. BJP is trying each and every possible way to form a govt...(KCR and all other nakkala support)...
Andhra - Rajanna dee rajyam..khayam...
Based on several reports and other resources ....congress getting simple majority is not a big deal right now...how many more we can get on top of 150 seats in andhra is the questions..due to several close contests (1000 votes majority or less)...right now it seems like we will have 60-80 of the constituencies like that
Okay...let us poll on May 15th (friday)..what is your expected MLA/MP seats for congress in AP...
let us see who will be closer to the reality..just for fun...whatever you feel like...let us do that on May 15th before the counting starts...
@HYF
I thought the same. Let all give the congress number and see who is closer.
Dear friends,
www.sakshitv.com - with TVU player some times not working
www.sakshihdtv.net - feedocast
Election Commission will post round-wise results on its website:
www.eci.gov.in
First round results are likely to be out by 9.30 am
I hope we will be leading by 200+ at 9-30AM
Jai Ho Cong ..Jai YSR..
Venu.
Sarma Garoo..
sent u an e-mail..
pls check Sir..
still more 2 nights...
Jai YSR Jai Jai YSR!
Hello Brothers,
TDP ki chendina oka samajaka varganiki,padukonna,lechina ysr
Needala Ventaduthunnadanta.....
Simham ghambheeryanga,Mounanga Gruhalo sedha theerchu kontunnadhi,
adi gruha nundi bayataki raagane,
daaniki manamandaram aharam kavalasindena,danni bhari nundi
ballariko,bangaloreko paripodamanu
anukonte,akkada Gali Janardhana Reddy rupamlo maroka simham kachuka
kurchuni vundhi.Thamilanaduku pari
podam anukonte akkada DMK vundhi,
atleast
americaku pari podhamante,ekkada
Obama rupamlo H1s ku spot petti
vunnadu.Only alternative is NDA
Government.Already they sent KCR
to support NDA.Prsthuthaniki
NDA okkate,YSR bhari nundi thappincha galarani Bhalanga Nammuthunnaru.NDA kuda kaapada lekapothe,ee Prapanchamlo
vandlanu kapaade vandle leru,YSR nundi................Srikrishna
Bhagavanudu sishupala sirachedanamuku 100 thappulu
bharinchadu,Ee TDP vandlaku kuda
100 va thappu 16th natiki purthavuthundhi vandla sirassu Khandinchadaniki..............
my estimate is 155-170 for cong and 26-28 mps
ysr udhruthi ni tattukoleka
siggu leni alliance lu cheskuni koodaa gelavaleka
ippudu siggu vidichi NDA tho kalavabothunna TDP ni choostunte asahyam vestundhi ..
idhenaa ANNA NTR pettina party ? aayane bathiki vunte chass jeevitham anukunevaadu
but .. okavela if congress comes back to power in AP, i dont thnk CBN will go with NDA .. he will kick KCR out of Kootami ..
Hello Mad4YS Garu,
Your estimate is 155-170 for cong and 26-28 mps.
If it is true I will be the happiest one.
What is your source?
his gut feeling and his analytics is his source andee ..
cvreddy garu,
not one particular source.. but going by the general perception... averaging out the worst and least case scenarios.
Tilak kadhalo oka situation untundi..
x: e party ki vote vesavu?
Y: oka party ki..mari nuvvo?
x: inko party ki..
x&y: oka vyapari ni: nee vote evariki vesaav?
vyapari: nenu elections lo vote eyyanu..
elections lo evaru geliste vallake naa otu..
---------------------------------
this story was written long back..may be in sixties..
ippudu ilanti chala partylu tayarayyeyi..
trs tdp admk jdu jds etc etc..
DISTRICT PRP Cong TDP TRS
ADILABAD(10) 0 4 3 3
NIZAMABAD(9) 0 6 2 1
KARIMNAGAR(13) 0 6 4 3
WARANGAL(12) 0 6 4 2
KHAMMAM(10) 0 6 2 0
NALGONDA(12) 0 7 2 1
MAHABOOBNAGAR (13) 0 8 4 1
RANGAREDDY(14) 1 8 3 0
HYDERABAD(15) 0 5 2 0
MEDHAK(10) 0 5 2 3
SRIKAKULAM (10) 3 5 2 0
VIJANAGARAM(9) 2 6 1 0
VISAKA(15) 5 7 3 0
EAST GADHAVARI(19) 5 9 5 0
WEST GADHAVARI(15) 5 6 4 0
KIRSHNA(16) 4 7 5 0
GUNTUR(17) 2 10 5 0
PRAKASAM(12) 1 8 3 0
NELLORE(10) 1 6 3 0
CHITTUR(14) 2 8 4 0
KADAPA(10) 0 7 3 0
KARNOOL(14) 2 9 3 0
ANANTAPURAM(14) 1 9 4 0
Total = 294 34 158 73 14
vyabhichari aina madhura vani ki kooda neeti untundi Gurazada Apparao gari kanya sulkam lo..
kani aa kanya sulkam lone..girisam ramappa pantuliki matram e neeti jaati suggu lajja undav..
exactly alanti valle nakka babu and k.chandala rao..
veellaki head broker gaadu okadunnadu..
vaadu ela taariste veelu ala tarchuku potaru..
chee veelladi oka bratukena..
kukkalu nakkalu sandulalo pandulu kooda siggu padatayi..
subba,
your analysis looks very convincing... is this your own guessing or some reliable source.. the news i am getting is in line with yours.... hopefully this should be true.. one we reach 140 nethimeeda palu vesinattu untundi....
Hello Subba,
Congress may get like this as given below.
Nizamabad-3
Warangal-3
Khammam-3
Nalgonda-5
MNagar-6
Hyd-4
Medak-3
East Godavari-6
Guntur-7
Anantapur-6
I almost agree with you in other districts.
hello friends cnn ibn post poll analysis at 5pm and ndtv 9pm these are the only reliable and professional, and one more thing is as elections are complete they try to be nearest to the results.
Subba gaaru...your numbers are convincing. Hope INC gets a few more seats.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/rahman-unhappy-with-jai-ho-poll-campaign/92485-3.html
dabbulu kattichukoni idemi drama... if he was not interested he shouldn't have given it...
My Estimate is 232. I go with Rajanna...
Babu Srikanth and Brahmananda reddy...kulagajji top to bottom ekkinchukunnattunnaru...migatha castes gurinchi matladetappudu koncham ollu daggara pettukondi...kotta bichagallu ani koosina vedhava okati gurthunchukovali....evadi caste vadiki goppa...vallu votlestene inni rojulu gelicharu...mee leaders meeku nachite valla gurinchi baaga raasukondi kaani migatha castes gurinchi ila vagakandi
Anyways...was searching for andhra politics surveys and found this blog...very good blog and lots of analysis from every one...my take from my sources...i think it will be a repeat of 1999(tdp and congress ni reverse chesukondi)...no anti-incumbency factor...the incumbent will get around 180 and the opposition split could be 80:30 for tdp+trs+cpi+cpm and prp
Samantha anna,
I always want to meet you. As our journey towards a MEANINGFUL destination is about to be achieved in 3 more days..I am now thinking to make this association with you and all ...more personal.If i am not wrong..you must be staying in America.will you please send a test mail to thinkerstock@gmail.com.
YSR will go down in history as a leader with great charishma...Indian politics lo leader ki charishma undali...masses lo appeal undali...CBN ki ledu...YSR ki leader ga manchi image undi...party ni strong ga maintain chesukunnadu...CBN is a weak leader...TDP can forget getting to power as long as he is there...any has any info on JP's performance from kukatpally?
guys,
we are getting to carried away with this discussion on caste and its implications.. YSR has favored every human being in this state... people who have got all the favors done and still want to vote on the basis of caste is their problem.. they will never come up in life. i think we shouldn't give too much of importance to all that...
mad4ys...baaga cheppav
hi Praja satta,
thanks for standing with us. And this blog is like Congress..where we always fought with ourselves.Even during my first days in the blog..i fought very hard with Ravindra anna.the founder of this blog:)....now i always smiled at remembering those fightings.
You are our friend and please forget any other things that hurts you.
itseems ong-nelson gave cong 163... they even told babu and chiranjeevi will win their respective seats. as far as kadapa is considered proddutur and mydukur will go to tdp...
what abt chiru in tirupathi??...that should be an interesting result
i dont know whether it was tpt or palakolu.. but i wish babu looses... i don't mind cong getting 148 but i want the next assembly minus babu & nagam
Nakka CBN gaadu odipote naakanna santoshinche vaadu ee prapamchm lo undadu..Even Nagam kooda..veelliddaru assembly ki pattina shani vedhavalu..
Naagam will loose..no doubt about it.And Regarding Chiru and CBN..i somehow have the feeling that both will win(technically) with less than 4000 votes. Morally..it means a defeat. Here i am referring to tirupathi in case of chiru. I dont know anything about Palakollu.so i could not comment about it.
Payyavula Kesav,Sunita,Nagam...i want these 3 to loose. Kesav and Nagam are for sure. But a tough fight in case of Sunita. Let us see.
and i want Topudurthi Prakash,Visweswar Reddy,Dhramavaram VenkataRami Reddy,thamballapalli Shankar,Yerram Venkateswar Reddy of Sattenapalli...to win at any cost.
Naaku Kudi kannu adurutundi..
I don't believe in superstitious powers..Kaani naa chinna tanam nundi naaku kudi kannu adurutundi ante,edo oka shubha vaarta telustundi in 1 or 2 days..
I expect I am going to listen good news in the form of exit polls in 3 hours..
Praja Satta... welcome to this blog. In Tirupati Chiru might[will] win. But the majority will not be the one that will justify his stature. No idea about Palacole.
@Praja Satta
In this blog we support congress, especially YSR. Here most of them are not against any caste. "kotha bichagallu" ante, votlu bicham adugu tharu kaabatti, bichagallu, kothaga vacharu kaabatti kotha bichagaallu. Ayina "kotha bichagallu" ane word start chesindhi, CPM raghavulu anukunta. adi oka caste ni kinchapariche vidhamga emi ledhu ani naa abhiprayam. meeru anthaga react kaanavasaram ledhu...
@praja satta..
Do you think there is no anti-incumbency factor in 1999 elections?
around 25 INC candidates lost with in the margin of 1000 votes..
around 60 INC candidates lost with in the margin of 5000 votes..
only bjp saved tdp in 1999..
Indra thinks : Manchi subha sakunam..kudi kannu adaradam...I sometimes do believe in those...
Subba analysis,very convincing for every body
one request to all, somehow i could not access sakshi tv online. post 5 pm who ever watches any survey from any tv..pls post that in the blog. i will be waiting for your inputs.
chakram
try this..
http://www.freedocast.com/sakshiTV
praja satta garu,
meeru totally confuse or misunderstood my posts... nowhere i referenced caste... bichagallu in politics are those who go around asking for votes... existing politicias are paata bicchagallu and kottaga vacchina vallani kotta bicchagallu antaru..
don't read too much into that... na friends anni castes vallu vunnaru ikkada... by the way welcome to the blog...
maha tv gave 82-93 for cong and 134-149 for mahakutami and around 50 for prp...
Times now predictions cong - 16,mk - 22 ,prp - 4 mps
these idiots in cnn-ibn are showing all the states that are less populated first so we can sit thru all the crap.. these guys are not projecting any seats they are only project voting percentage...no to be taken seriously in my sense..
TV9 Exit polls evainaa vunte pettandi...
humm...Maha TV's figures are quite impressive i must say :)
Ee MAHA TV gaadu second phase polling ayina tarvaatha kooda ide numbers cheppadu..use less fellow..
maha tv polls are not surprising he i venkat rao is hardcore fan of tdp
Maha TV I Venkat Rao ane vaadu Sr NTR ki,CBN gaadi bhajana Sangham President.Veedu "Eduruleni Mona gaadu" ani Sr.NTR meeda,CBN meeda books raashadu.We can not expect anything better than those stats.
Maha TV,Studio N lo CBN pettubadulu unnayi...Lite teeskondi vaadi Exit polls.
MAHA tv gaadey manaki 82 icchaadu antey..manamu inkoka 82 easy ga kalupukovacchu daaniki..so total 164 guaranteed manaki.
friends dont get disturbed with maha tv polls i expected even worst projections from him. he is pro tdp . lets wait for ndtv results
Any body know whether sakshi tv planning to release any exit polls of it's own?
mad4YS,
what are the polling percentages CNN-IBN given to congress in Andhra? give for remaining parties also
Andhra Analysis vacchesariki inko Ganta time padutundi Chakram gaaru...
Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Kerala ippativaraku cover chesaadu
CG- BJP
JK - BJP
KL - Congress
chakram,
these guys have not come to ap.. they are still hanging to states that viewers in 100s... when they come to ap i will post it in the blog immi
i can sense cnn ibn strategy to make us sit thru this crap.. they will make sure projects balance between cong and bjp state after state....
Congress in ASSAM
its better to start a new blog for discussing exit poll results
As we are close to the results, I will reiterate my estimates (which I said already) - Congress will get somewhere between 80-120 based of how certain things turn out.
Guys - One sincere request is - most of you folks are pretty decent & well cultered, but I see few who keep making everything caste related...say, if someone praises CBN or TDP, immediatly throwing "caste fanatic" weapon on him...If you have problems with Ramoji or CBN, criticize him/them at personal level, but don't generalize the whole caste. There is good & bad in "every" sect (be it religion or caste or region).
Remember - Over enthusiasm & over action by some youth of one particular caste (immediatly after NTR's victory in 1983) caused a lot of damage to TDP as a party & made lot of enemies to that caste as a whole. I hope that trend stops there.
I am so tensed..Telugu News Channels evi Exit polls conduct cheyyaleda???
Please post them here...
guj-bjp
Next is AP...after GUJ
no its rajasthan
Sakshi Tv exit polls at 8.00 pm.
star news exit polls
congress 23
tdp 10
trs 5
others 4
headlines today exit polls
cong 22
tdp 10
trs 4-5
prp 4
sakshi exit polls at 8 30 pm
Thanks Rohit...Naaku Tension sagam teerindi..
Star news and headlines today exit polls are good indication.
no way trs is going to get 5 out 8
Thanks Rohit - Star news surveys little close to the reality...iam so excieted..thnx very much.
ABCD, previous post lo nuvvu maatladina maatala tarvaata inkokallaki cheppey arhata neeku ledhu. U can continue putting ur views about statistics. kaani sookthulu cheppey kaaryakramaalu pettukoku.
@Rohit,
Is star news news exit poll is done by nielson-org?
I think star news exit poll is done by nielson - org which is more efficient.
friends
I am watching elections from last 25 years. as per exit polls i only belive in ndtv, cnn ibn and star news. I dont belive much in aaj tak zeenews and also local channels. Star news projected exactly in Rajasthan, delhi, mp and chattisgarh in the last assembly elections. Whatever their results may be they are near to correct.
Rohit,
I thought Aaj Tak was most accurate in 2004 predictions in AP assembly... ???
//Star news projected exactly in Rajasthan, delhi, mp and chattisgarh in the last assembly elections//
This is the reason i said Rohit, Star news projections are little closer...
aaj tak head prabhu chawla is lightly inclined towards bjp
@Rohit,
I agree star news predicted assembly elections correctly which is done by nielson org. I have more confidence in nielson org.
Any national projections?
http://www.hinduonnet.com/2004/04/27/stories/2004042713931100.htm
nielson org gave 163 for cong highly placed sources gave this info
i talked to sakshi head of kurnool, he is very close to me they are very much confident of 175-190
next is ap in cnn ibn
Rohit brother,
Kurnool lo yenni seats expect cheshtunnaro Sakshi vallu osari adigi kanukkuntaara dayachesi?
ibn said that cong is not likely to loose any vote since 2004
in ap
mad4ys,
Thats good.
what is IBN analysys?
ippudu cheptaru this is just a scrolling
high level of satisfaction for ysr
ADV congress in AP
TDP will lose substancial vote share from 2004
IBN poll is good news for cong I think.
Congress Vote share -42
TDP- 25
42% for cong -)))))
what? 42%..what man...that means a sweep...i could not believe this..though i am a hardcore fan of YSR
Enni seatlu????
I think it is going to be 230+
too close to call ani chepparu
Assembly Hung antunnadu...Chiru vote share 14%
loksabha - congress ahead
vidhansabha - hung with chiru the spoiler
42% for lok sabha
they said prp has eatten into cong and tdp
Assembly voting % - 38 congress, 33 TDP and 14 Chiru
Seatlu enni??????Are they going to announce it or not???
Mad4days,
when will Nielsen release it polls? It will be in TV?
assembly ki voting percentages icchaada? chiru ki 14% annapudu..migitha parties assembly percentages kooda cheppi vuntaadu kadhaa?
Andaru bommalu veyyinchukuntunnaru, naake emi ledu anukunna. Thanks Ravi, naa peru meeda voka thread vesavu.
star news national projection
upa 199
nda 196
3rd front 100
4th front 40
cong 155
bjp 153
Even with 38% vote share and 5% more than nearest rival, it will be adavantage congress.
Cities lo votes ekkuva. And congress will NOT fare very well there. But seats takkuva. In villages seats ekkuva votes takkuva. Congress will fare there. Considering all these facts, I am sensing easy congress victory.
Seats emi cheppadam ledu
38% is still a good scoring. Dont worry. no hung will come. And one more input i need...did they say TDP alone 33%..if so ..what are the percentages for remaining parties in mahakootami?
>>>assembly ki voting percentages icchaada? chiru ki 14% annapudu..migitha parties assembly
Chakram, congress 38% tdp 33%...my gut feeling if congress really gets 38% then they shud sail somewhere near 160-170 range..
i have no idea which tv nielson com on
2004 elections there was no ban on exit polls. So national channels immediately gave projections, so there was no chance for our biased local media to propagate their views. Unfortunately this time there is ban so national channels could not telecast exit polls, due to which we have faces local media onslaught for so many days. now things are becoming clear
CD, first oka question ki answer kaavali? TDP ki alone ga 33% icchaada? if so..mahakootami loni migitha parties percentages yentha?
chakram:
TDP:33%,
TRS+: 5%
that would answer your question.
assembly is being called close, and possibly hung.
All from CNN IBN
tdp 33% alone or for MK?
38+33+14 is only 85%
what happened to rest 15%? loksatta & bjp = 15%? its too much i guess...
if its tdp alone 33% then its good for them....
If congress gets >40% vote it will get >200 seats. If it gets 39% will get 150 min. I am little suspect on 4% difference between loksabha and assembly. If it is true cong will get 30 mp seats.
enteeeeeeeeeeeeeee???????????
42% aaa??????
unbelievable....idhe ganaka nijamaithe landslide victory confirm. more than 230
EE CNN IBN gaadu pedda edava laaga unnadu..No OF seats ivvochu kada??
Any how I am leaving for the day...Catch u guys at my home..Thanks for your update...
Harsha, we cannot add 33 + 5 and say 38 for MK. Because TRS only existed in Telangana.
This gets complicated because we have to determine how much share TDP and Congress got in Telangana.
Let us not complicate and stress ourselves. I think we will get the majority for sure.
CNN IBN Live.
No log in required.
http://www.telugufilmblog.com/2009/01/watch-cnn-ibn-live-streaming.html
cong has not lost any vote that means prp has not eaten too much into cong atleast
TRS effect is only in Telangana.
INC 38%
TDP 33
PRP 14%
CPI+CPM+TRS = 11%
Cheer Up...We are making more MP Seats than MLA Seats...and YSR will be the CM again..
iNEWS >> COng: 103, TDP:113, TRS-21 Left-10 PRP-38
i think 42% for congress in parliament polls and 38% for congress in assembly polls...
anything above 40% in assembly we need not worry. but 38% ante anything can happen ani na feeling. it all depends on prp... 14% for prp and 38% for congress is defintely a not good sign for us.. prp should get atleast 20% of total votes...
Sarma,
However, from the analysts sitting around, they voice
LS: advantage congress
Assembly: possibly hung, and too close to call.
inews timesnow di icharu
sarma,
for tdp 33+5 + 38% may not be true as u said.
but u shud also see 33% is not average per constituency. its overall share in AP and tdp contested only in 225 seats or so..
which mean its really good numbers for TDP... so, in coastal average share may be a lot high than 33%...
subba garu, TDP 33% plus cpi/cpm/trs 11% means 44% for MK.. way high than congress... hmmm this numbers are definitely not sounding great for me...
Trend seems like local channels like iNews and maha are predicting MK edge. And national channels are giving Cong edge. We will have to see...
Keep this thread going. After elections I think this thread got more hits. :-)
Srikanth,
at the same time you are ignoring the fact that all MK parties did not contest in all the constituencies.
What I mean is:
For example CPI/M contested in 25 seats. Polls will only get percentage for these parties in that constituency. Not in every constituency. So that 6% for commies comes from how ever many number of seats they contested from. YOu cannot add everything and say that they will get 44%
CNN IBN
------------
Loksabha
CON - 42%
TDP - 25%
TRS - 11%
PRP - 14%
-------------
Assembly
CON - 38%
TDP - 33%
TRS - 5%
PRP - 14%
** Cong doing good than expected despite of Maha Kootami
** TDP not doing any better
** Chiru not likely to play major role in Loksabha in AP
** Chiru likely to play good role in Assembly
** Chiru may end up with 1-2 MP seats
** TDP loosing -7%, TRS +2% , PRP 14% than 2004 elections
** Government satisfaction 61%
----------------
My question:
** If one has to win a cure seat either MP or MLA he has to get 34% to win
** Chiru on average getting 14% how many seats can he spoil ?
He cannot win but spoils others
------------
I will keep updating keep watching
Guys it is very complicated. Statistics and Algebra are not the same. Algebra is truth and statistics is prediction.
1 + 1 = 2 (Algebra)
1 + 1 = 2 with 80% probability and
+- 20% error
:)
cnn-ibn assembly-
cong 38%
tdp 33%
trs+left 5%
prp 14%
mim+bjp+LS+others 15%
/*tv9: cong 150, maha 110, prp 25 others 9 (MP cong 26 maha 16)
ndtv cong 141 maha 95 prp 35
cnnibn cong 135 maha 115 prp 26
timesnow cong 109 maha 121 prp 49*/
is the comment i made yesterday.. so tv9 di 150 ante koncham nammadagame
Is TV9 giving exit poll?
headlines today PROJECTIONS
UPA 196
NDA 184
/***
Guys it is very complicated. Statistics and Algebra are not the same. Algebra is truth and statistics is prediction.
1 + 1 = 2 (Algebra)
1 + 1 = 2 with 80% probability and
+- 20% error
:)
***/
Good one Sarma gaaru, but the baseline is you don't use statistics when adding absolutes.
Shikar,
Exactly. I am conveying that you cannot add statistical percentages like we add absolutes.
I guess you did not understand the post..
Ardham ayyindi Sarma gaaru, but mee explanation lo aa point ledani voka post veddamu anukunna.
Algebra gaand gaabra,sorry for filthy word but it is true for all the leaders.All paths including exit polls,analysis,algebra and etc leads victory for YSR in AP>
one guaranteed thing is...If CNN-IBN poll predictions for MP seats in Andhra is anywhere near true..then CBN is closed in national politics.
And assembly...very very tough to analyse. but one thing is...congress fared well despite MAHAKOOTAMI.
But last but not least....These are still predictions. Please do not come to a conclusion...either it is positive to you or negative to you.
Guys Inews EXIT poll
TDP -113
Congress - 103
PRP -38
TRS -21
watch IBN lIVE and I NEWS
http://telugutvlu.blogspot.com/2009/05/ibn-live.html
2004 assembly vote share
TDP 37.06%
Congress 38.24%
BJP 2.63%
Left Parties 3.50%
TRS9 6.63%
2009 assembly vote share - CNN IBN
CON - 38%
TDP - 33%
TRS - 5%
PRP - 14%
** Look at the intresting figures ***
** Congress likely to retain 38% than 38.24% in 2004
** TDP loosing heavily 37.06% to 33%
** TRS loosing 6.63% to 5% in 2009
** PRP taking the major anti-incumbency vote share, this is very
good for ruling party i.e. congress because it can afford to loose
but bad for TDP because it should capitalize on anti-Govt vote which
it did not
i news is new but haslot of credibility convincing viewrs they predicted hung and edge for TDP inthestate.
hey friends,
tell me how many mp seats TRS contested and how many mp seats left contested? give individual figures.Dont mix up both.
Chakram,
I agree.Some times they are right and some times they are wrong.
But most of polls do indicate a hung to adv. Cong in assembly.
I will go with people who have been polling for a longer time. Only reason that they may have better sampling and also they have enough knowledge to interpret based on trends.
Behind The Scene: Split imminent in TRS?
Please post the links if you come across on any surveys or interesting news.
Sakshi 181 Cong , 64 kutami , 12 PRP
44% for CONg , 33.5 % TDP
Waiting for NDTV exit poll..
When is TV9's poll coming out?
i news totally depends on free TV and CTS
VenuReddy gaaru, can u please elaborate?? total seats kalipithe 250 vastaayi..wht happened to remaining??
Rajdeep critical statement:
Congress has not done as badly as feared and not as well as expected either..prp has done equal damage to both congress and tdp..
I think if prp does equal damage then it's definite advantage congress..am i missing anything here guys??
Cong 181, TDP 42 ,CPI 5, TRS 17, PRP 12 ,LS 1 , BJP 1 , Tight 25 , MIM 8
As per Sakshi
In other words, PRP doing equal damage to both congress and TDP means PRP is not in the fray at all..I mean it's effect is minimal..
per say without prp
congress share 42% TDP share 38%
If prp takes out 7% each
then congress 35% TDP 31%
Statistically it shud not make any difference..but ground level it may make some difference..this is what YSR has been saying all along..
Rayalaseema
CONG 38 kUTAMI 11 prp 2
SAKSHI
his credibility will be at stake .. so sakshi cannot be ignored completely
rajdeep has said that ysr is still holding on after completion of first phase
putting in view sakshi figures of 181 and CNN-IBN figures of 38% vote sharing..i can safely assume we can get atleast 153 for sure.And pls note this is pessimistic.
>>>Rayalaseema
CONG 38 kUTAMI 11 prp 2
Venu gaaru, this looks close to reality..I was predicting 14 to 15 seats to TDP and 1 to PRP before polls..couple of days I was looking at some TDP doctored survey..seema lo they were giving 14 to congress..really a bunch of jokers..
Dear RK and Thammudu Chakram..
Start a New Thread. Rolling all the 180+ everytime is taking time...
yeah start a new thread saying "this is just a begining"..
yes you are right
There is no need to project Cong Now ...in couple of days any way result will come ..
Sakshi gave perfect last time in By elections also ..
even if 5% error in sakshi we are going to win
RNB Chankya : another agency in Delhi gave 175 +/- 10 for Cong
Sakshi aslo in the smiler lines
490 Sample is good
new thread started ...
Lets start new thread Jai Ho !! Jai Ho !!!
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